Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Don't worry Florida, we'll take the hit for you!

From the weather Wunder Blog:

"Tropical Storm Hanna has weathered the worst of the wind shear affecting it, but continues to struggle. The strong upper-level winds from the north have weakened, and wind shear has fallen from 30 knots yesterday to 15 knots today. There is a large amount of dry continental air to the northwest of Hanna, and this is also interfering with the storm. Satellite loops show that Hanna is poorly organized, with heavy thunderstorms limited to the east side of the storm. Fortunately, these thunderstorms have moved away from northern Haiti, where flooding rains from Hanna killed 21 people yesterday. Satellite estimates suggest Hanna has dumped up to six inches of rain on northern Haiti and the northern Dominican Republic.The track forecast for HannaHanna has been moving erratically over the past day, and has moved considerably farther east than most of the models expected. This decreases the threat to the western Bahama Islands, Florida, and Georgia, since Hanna will be starting further east when it makes its expected turn to the northwest. A landfall location near the South Carolina/North Carolina border is more likely, which would occur Friday night. On Saturday, Hanna will be racing north and then northeast along the U.S. East Coast, bringing tropical storm conditions to the mid-Atlantic and New England states.The intensity forecast for HannaThe wind shear is forecast to remain at its current level, 15-25 knots, over the remainder of Hanna's life. There is a large amount of dry continental air lying between Hanna and South Carolina, which will continue to cause problems for the storm. However, sea surface temperatures are a warm 29°C, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) of 40-70, just below the value of 80 typically associated with rapid intensification. The GFDL model intensifies Hanna to a Category 1 hurricane, but the HWRF and SHIPS model keep it a tropical storm. I expect Hanna will have top winds between 60 mph and 80 mph at landfall in North or South Carolina, making it a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane."

Basically this means that the storm is going to arrive later than expected (boo), and that the upper SC coast is the projected landfall (boo again). It'd be nice if it either went another direction or came through quickly, but neither appears likely to happen at the moment.

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