Thursday, September 4, 2008

We're officially under a hurricance watch!

With a little better predictions today, Hanna is expected to barely become a Category 1 storm, if she can event gain that much strength. A very nice weatherman from Myrtle Beach describes what our next few days will look like below.

TRACK Again last night, NOAA sent their high altitude plane up to sample the environment around Hanna. Data from that mission was used in all of last night's evening runs of the various forecast models. While most of them won't be out for a few hours, some of the early tracks still point to a possible landfall near the South Carolina/North Carolina state line or even a track just off the coast into North Carolina Friday night. Assuming the forecast track is reasonably close, here's a time line of events and how you will be impacted.

TIMELINE
THURSDAY - HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED IN THE MORNING. Another beautiful day with sunshine and easterly winds between 5 - 15 mph.


FRIDAY - Clouds thicken with rain developing and wind increasing later in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT - Heavy rain and wind, especially along the Grand Strand.

SATURDAY - By mid morning, things are improving quickly with clearing skies and diminishing winds.

WORST IMPACTS FROM 10PM FRIDAY THROUGH 6AM SATURDAY


GRAND STRAND
Wind: 55 - 75 mph
Rain: 3" - 5" with isolated amounts as high as 6"...NOTHING like the 20" we had with Floyd in 1999
Storm Surge: Minimal, but high tide is right around the projected landfall. The typical low lying areas in Georgetown, Garden City and Little River may have some flooding similar to what we experienced with Charley in 2004.
Tornado: Slight risk

INLAND
Wind: 35 - 55 mph especially east of I -95
Rain: 1" - 3" with isolated amounts as high as 4"
Tornado: Slight risk to none


Stay tuned for Bride vs Groom Putt-Putt updates!

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

We've played the waiting game long enough...

Ahh, Hanna... She likes to keep us guessing! The latest news here is that, essentially, they still don't exactly know where she will make landfall, but things are looking a little more favorable for us. (Knock on wood...)

Governor Sanford has said it is "highly unlikely" there will be evacuations, but notes that if she hits during high tide, certain low-lying areas may be looked at very closely. Thus, at this point, all things point to a go for Saturday. Please plan on posing for pictures with us by some downed tree limbs. :) This wedding will be nothing if not memorable!!

Hopefully we'll have a more definitive path by mid-day tomorrow, and maybe even some wind to show for the approaching storm. Today was so calm it was crazy.

For now though, we will leave you with the lovely map of Hanna's path to date. This is one wacky storm!!!!

See you all Saturday!!!




Don't worry Florida, we'll take the hit for you!

From the weather Wunder Blog:

"Tropical Storm Hanna has weathered the worst of the wind shear affecting it, but continues to struggle. The strong upper-level winds from the north have weakened, and wind shear has fallen from 30 knots yesterday to 15 knots today. There is a large amount of dry continental air to the northwest of Hanna, and this is also interfering with the storm. Satellite loops show that Hanna is poorly organized, with heavy thunderstorms limited to the east side of the storm. Fortunately, these thunderstorms have moved away from northern Haiti, where flooding rains from Hanna killed 21 people yesterday. Satellite estimates suggest Hanna has dumped up to six inches of rain on northern Haiti and the northern Dominican Republic.The track forecast for HannaHanna has been moving erratically over the past day, and has moved considerably farther east than most of the models expected. This decreases the threat to the western Bahama Islands, Florida, and Georgia, since Hanna will be starting further east when it makes its expected turn to the northwest. A landfall location near the South Carolina/North Carolina border is more likely, which would occur Friday night. On Saturday, Hanna will be racing north and then northeast along the U.S. East Coast, bringing tropical storm conditions to the mid-Atlantic and New England states.The intensity forecast for HannaThe wind shear is forecast to remain at its current level, 15-25 knots, over the remainder of Hanna's life. There is a large amount of dry continental air lying between Hanna and South Carolina, which will continue to cause problems for the storm. However, sea surface temperatures are a warm 29°C, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) of 40-70, just below the value of 80 typically associated with rapid intensification. The GFDL model intensifies Hanna to a Category 1 hurricane, but the HWRF and SHIPS model keep it a tropical storm. I expect Hanna will have top winds between 60 mph and 80 mph at landfall in North or South Carolina, making it a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane."

Basically this means that the storm is going to arrive later than expected (boo), and that the upper SC coast is the projected landfall (boo again). It'd be nice if it either went another direction or came through quickly, but neither appears likely to happen at the moment.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Hanna might be the most indecisive hurricane/tropical storm EVER

Well, they say no news is good news, but we're not so sure that's the case. Bottom line is, even the guys with the PhDs aren't quite sure what Hanna is going to do. They expect to have a better idea of where she'll hit tomorrow. Hopefully we'll have a better idea at that time too. Here is our thinking as of right now.

Scenario One: The governor orders a mandatory evacuation. We are in Georgetown County, SC. If this happens for our county, then, quite frankly, we're in big trouble. If there is an evacuation, there will be no wedding. What Plan B is here, we aren't quite sure yet.

Scenario Two: We don't evacuate, but either the church or the reception venue lose power. If this happens and power is restored by noon Saturday, then it's business as usual. If it's not restored until late Saturday or early Sunday, we will likely try and push the wedding to Sunday afternoon.

Scenario Three: Hanna hits but life goes on. We all bring lots of umbrellas and I (Sara) carry my dress hiked up to my knees in a rather unflattering way, but we still get married and get to celebrate with all you fine folks. This is obviously the option we are hoping for, but it's all in the hands of the Governor now.

Travel will surely be sketchy as well. Please make sure to be safe if you travel. If you need to leave Saturday, please do so. Putt putt is not looking so good anyway...

Here's to a great story to tell in future years!

With that, we'll leave you with a picture of beautiful Pawleys Island taken today. Hard to believe such pretty blue skies and nice water could turn vicious by Friday...


Monday, September 1, 2008

Look out West Virginia!

No real "news" again, but a more recent map... Looks like traveling will be the most difficult part of the wedding - make sure to arrive safely! I suppose we should be glad we decided to get married INSIDE rather than on the beach. And putt putt Friday night will probably morph into bowling instead.

Updated Map

Nothing has changed yet, but we do have an updated map. Tomorrow we will talk to our vendors in order to prepare for all scenarios, but the reality is that for now we will have to wait and see. From the looks of things, Friday will be the "worst" day, which will affect most people's travel plans. On the bright side, things should be looking rather sunny for Saturday!

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Boooooo Tropical Storm Hanna






It's T-6 days until our wedding and our dear friend, Tropical Storm Hanna has decided to throw us a curve ball and change her course back in the South Carolina-ish direction. At this point, it's too early for any decisions to be made, but we'll post all updates here.


The latest info from the Hurricane Center projects that Hanna hits the GA/SC border around 2:00pm Friday as a Cat 1 storm. Not too convenient. Doesn't she know we've been planning a wedding for a year and a half!!??


For now, Billy and I are at the beach and we'll just enjoy the sun, sand and the giant waves while we can.


Keep those fingers crossed and say lots of prayers!!!